Publications

Buehler, R., & Griffin, D. (2018). The planning fallacy. In G. Oettingen, P. Gollwitzer, & T. Sevincer (Eds.), The psychology of thinking about the future (pp. 517-538). New York: Guilford Press.

Soliman, M., & Buehler, R. (2018). Why improvement can trump consistent strong performance: The role of effort perceptions. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31, 52-64.

Soliman, M., & Buehler, R. (2018). Evaluating performance over time: Is improving better than being consistently good? Journal of Social Psychology, 158(3), 271-284.

Soliman, M., Buehler, R., & Peetz, J. (2017). Envisioning a future purchase: The effects of consumption imagery perspective and identity on consumer motivation. Psychology and Marketing, 34, 684-692.  doi:10.1002/mar.21015

Wiese, J., Buehler, R., & Griffin, D. (2016). Backward planning: Effects of planning direction on predictions of task completion time. Judgment and Decision Making, 11(2), 147-167.

Peetz, J., Simmons, M., Chen, & Buehler, R. (2016). Predictions on the go: Prevalence of spontaneous predictions for purchases. Judgment and Decision Making, 11(1), 48-61.

Peetz, J., Buehler, R., Koehler, D., & Moher, E. (2015). Bigger not better: Unpacking future expenses inflates spending predictions. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 37(1), 19-30. doi:10.1080/01973533.2014.973109

Buehler, R., & Griffin, D. (2015). The planning fallacy: When plans lead to optimistic forecasts.  In M. D. Mumford & M. Frese (Eds.), The psychology of planning in organizations: Research and applications (pp. 31-57). New York: Routledge.

Poon, C. S. K., Koehler, D. J., & Buehler, R. (2014). On the psychology of self-prediction: Considerations of situational barriers to intended actions. Judgment and Decision Making, 9(3), 207-225.

Peetz, J., & Buehler, R. (2013). Different goals, different predictions: Accuracy and bias in financial planning for events and time periods. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 43, 1079-1088.

Wilson, A. E., Buehler, R., Lawford, H., Schmidt, C., & Yong, A. G. (2012). Basking in projected glory: The role of subjective temporal distance in future self-appraisal. European Journal of Social Psychology, 42, 342-353.

McFarland, C., & Buehler, R. (2012). Negative moods and the motivated remembering of past selves: The role of implicit theories of personal stability. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 102, 242-263.

Buehler, R., Griffin, D., Lam, K. C. H., & Deslauriers, J. (2012). Perspectives on prediction: Does third-person imagery improve task completion estimates? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 17, 138-149.

Peetz, J., & Buehler, R. (2012). When distance pays off: The role of construal level in spending predictions. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 48, 395-398.

Peetz, J., Buehler, R., & Britten, K. (2011). Only minutes-a-day: Reframing exercise duration affects exercise intentions and behavior. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 33, 118-127.

Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Peetz, J. (2010). The planning fallacy: Cognitive, motivational, and social origins. In M. P. Zanna & J. M. Olson (Eds.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology (Volume 43, pp. 1-62). San Diego: Academic Press.

Peetz, J., Buehler, R., & Wilson, A. E. (2010). Planning for the near and distant future: How does temporal distance affect task completion predictions? Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 46, 709-720.

Buehler, R., Peetz, J., & Griffin, D. (2010). Finishing on time: When do predictions influence completion times? Organizational Behavior and Human Decison Processes, 111, 23-32

Peetz, J., & Buehler, R. (2009). Is there a budget fallacy? The role of savings goals in the prediction of personal spending. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 35, 1579-1591.

Lam, K. C. H., & Buehler, R. (2009). Trips down memory lane: Recall direction affects the subjective distance of past events. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 35, 230-242.

McFarland, C., Buehler, R., von Ruti, R., Nguyen, L., & Alvaro, C. (2007). The impact of negative moods on self-enhancing cognitions: The role of reflective vs. ruminative mood orientations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 93, 728-750.

Buehler, R. (2007). The planning fallacy. In R. Baumeister & K. Vohs (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Social Psychology. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Vasquez, N., & Buehler, R. (2007). Seeing future success: Does imagery perspective influence achievement motivation? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 33, 1392-1405.

Buehler, R., McFarland, C., Spyropoulos, V., & Lam, K. C. H. (2007). Motivated prediction of future feelings: Effects of negative mood and mood orientation on affective forecasts. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 33, 1265-1278.

McFarland, C., Cheam, A., & Buehler, R. (2007). Perseverance in the debriefing paradigm: Replication and extension. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 43, 233-240.

Griffin, D., & Buehler, R. (2005). Biases and fallacies, memories and predictions: Comment on Roy, Christenfeld, and McKenzie. Psychological Bulletin, 131, 757-760.

Buehler, R., Messervey, D., & Griffin , D. (2005). Collaborative planning and prediction: Does group discussion affect optimistic biases in time estimation? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 97, 47-63.

Lam, K. C. H., Buehler, R., McFarland, C., Ross, M., & Cheung, I. (2005). Cultural differences in affective forecasting: The role of focalism. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 31, 1296-1309.

Buehler, R., & Griffin, D. (2003). Planning, personality, and prediction: The role of future focus in optimistic time predictions. Organizational Behaviour and Human Decison Processes, 92, 80-90.

Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (2002). Inside the planning fallacy: The causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, & D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp. 250-270). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

McFarland, C., Buehler, R., & MacKay, L. (2001). Affective responses to social comparisons with extremely close others. Social Cognition, 19, 547-586.

Buehler, R., & McFarland, C. (2001). Intensity bias in affective forecasting: The role of temporal focus. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 27, 1480-1493.

Ross, M., & Buehler, R. (2001). Identity through time: Constructing personal pasts and futures. In A. Tesser & N. Schwarz (Eds.), Blackwell handbook of social psychology, Volume 1: Intraindividual processes (pp. 518-544). Oxford: Blackwell. [Reprinted in: Brewer, M. B., & Hewstone, M. (2004). Self and social identity. Oxford: Blackwell.]

Newby-Clark, I. R., Ross, M., Buehler, R., Koehler, D., & Griffin, D. (2000). People focus on optimistic and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 6, 171-182.

Griffin, D., & Buehler, R. (1999). Frequency, probability, and prediction: Easy solutions to cognitive illusions? Cognitive Psychology, 38, 48-78.

McFarland, C., & Buehler, R. (1998). The impact of negative affect on autobiographical memory: The role of self-focused attention to moods. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75, 1424-1440.

Ross, M., Buehler, R., & Karr, J. (1998). Assessing the accuracy of conflicting, autobiographical memories. Memory and Cognition, 26, 1233-1244.

McFarland, C., & Buehler, R. (1997). Negative affective states and the motivated retrieval of positive life events: The role of affect acknowledgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 73, 200-214.

Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & MacDonald, H. (1997). The role of motivated reasoning in optimistic time predictions. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 23, 238-247.

McFarland, C., & Buehler, R. (1995). Collective self-esteem as a moderator of the frog-pond effect in reactions to performance feedback. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68, 1055-1070.

Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1995). It’s about time: Optimistic predictions in work and love. In Stroebe, W. & Hewstone, M. (Eds.), European Review of Social Psychology (Volume 6, pp. 1-32). Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.

Buehler, R., & Griffin, D. (1994). Change-of-meaning effects in conformity and dissent: Observing construal processes over time. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67, 984-996.

Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the “planning fallacy”: Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67, 366-381.

Ross, M., & Buehler, R. (1994). Creative remembering. In U. Neisser & R. Fivush (Eds.), The remembering self: Construction and accuracy in the self-narrative (pp. 205-235). New York: Cambridge University Press.

Ross, M., & Buehler, R. (1994). On authenticating and using personal recollections. In N. Schwarz & S. Sudman (Eds.), Autobiographical memory and the validity of retrospective reports(pp. 55-69). New York: Springer-Verlag.

Buehler, R., & Ross, M. (1993). How do individuals remember their past statements? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 64, 538-551.

Griffin, D., & Buehler, R. (1993). Role of construal processes in conformity and dissent. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 657-669.


Unpublished Papers

Peetz, J., Lam, K. C. H., & Buehler, R.  Proving them wrong: Using others’ doubts as a source of motivation. Unpublished manuscript.

Buehler, R., Otsubo, Y., Heine, S., & Lehman, D., & Griffin, D. Culture and optimism: The planning fallacy in Japan and North America. Unpublished manuscript.